Odds of Winning Solitaire: Win Rates for Every Variant
From FreeCell's near-perfect 99% to Canfield's brutal 3% — the actual numbers, explained.
Why Win Rates Vary So Widely
Not all solitaire games are created equal. FreeCell is winnable nearly 100% of the time. Canfield is won only about 3% of the time. The difference isn't randomness — it's game design.
Games with all cards visible (FreeCell, Baker's Dozen) give players the information needed to find optimal solutions. Games with hidden cards or limited moves (Canfield, Forty Thieves) force decisions with incomplete information and punish every mistake severely. The table below shows every variant we carry, with both theoretical (solvable deals) and practical (real player) win rates.
Win Rate Table — All 13 Variants
| Game | Theoretical | Practical | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klondike Turn 1 | ~79% | ~33% | Medium |
| Klondike Turn 3 | ~82% | ~11% | Hard |
| FreeCell | ~99.999% | ~99% | Medium |
| Spider 1-Suit | ~95%+ | ~85% | Easy |
| Spider 4-Suit | ~40% | ~30% | Very Hard |
| TriPeaks | ~90% | ~70% | Easy |
| Pyramid | ~66% | ~5% | Hard |
| Golf | ~40% | ~35% | Easy |
| Yukon | ~70% | ~60% | Hard |
| Forty Thieves | ~45% | ~8% | Very Hard |
| Canfield | ~35% | ~3% | Very Hard |
| Scorpion | ~50% | ~15% | Hard |
| Baker's Dozen | ~90% | ~88% | Medium |
| Gaps (Montana) | ~60% | ~5% | Very Hard |
| Sir Tommy | ~75% | ~35% | Medium |
Practical win rates reflect average player performance. Theoretical rates assume optimal play with full deck knowledge.
Theoretical vs. Practical Win Rates
Theoretical win rate answers: "What percentage of shuffled deals can be solved if the player knows every card in the deck and plays perfectly?" This is a computational question answered by running algorithms over millions of random deals.
Practical win rateanswers: "What percentage of games do real players actually finish?" This is measured from game logs and surveys. It's always lower than the theoretical rate because players don't have perfect information and don't always find the optimal line.
The gap between the two is a measure of how information-dependent the game is. FreeCell has a tiny gap because all cards are visible — players can usually find the solution through careful analysis. Klondike has a massive gap because face-down tableau cards and buried stock cards force guesses that are often wrong.
What Affects Your Win Rate?
Card visibility
Games where all cards start face-up (FreeCell, Baker's Dozen, Yukon) have much higher practical win rates because players have the information needed to plan ahead.
Deck count
Two-deck games (Spider, Forty Thieves) are harder because managing twice as many cards with the same tableau space creates constant congestion.
Move restrictions
Games that only allow one card to move at a time (Forty Thieves, Canfield) are dramatically harder than games allowing sequences to move as groups.
Skill vs. luck split
In high-visibility games, skill dominates. In games with lots of hidden information (Klondike, Pyramid), luck has an outsized effect regardless of strategy quality.
Best Win Rates for Beginners
If you want to win often while learning solitaire, start with FreeCell or Baker's Dozen. Both show all cards from the start and have win rates above 88% for players who take their time. Losses are learning experiences rather than bad luck.
For a middle ground between skill and luck, try TriPeaks (fast, fun, ~70% practical win rate) or Klondike Turn 1 (~33%). These are the games most people picture when they say “solitaire.”
Avoid Canfield, Gaps, and Forty Thieves as your first games. Their low win rates aren't a reflection of your skill — they're just very hard games that reward deep familiarity with the specific mechanics.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the difference between theoretical and practical win rates?
- The theoretical win rate is the percentage of deals that are mathematically solvable — given perfect play with complete knowledge of the deck. The practical win rate is what real players actually achieve. The gap between the two reflects how hard optimal play is. FreeCell has a small gap (99.999% vs ~99%) because optimal moves are usually visible. Klondike has a large gap (79% vs 33%) because key decisions require information the player doesn't have.
- Which solitaire game has the best odds of winning?
- FreeCell has the best practical win rate at roughly 99% for skilled players. Baker's Dozen is second at around 88%. Both games have all (or nearly all) cards visible from the start, which is why theoretical and practical win rates stay close to each other.
- Can you always win FreeCell?
- Almost always. Of the roughly 32,000 standard FreeCell deals, only 8 are proven unwinnable (deals #11982, #146692, and six others). The remaining 99.999%+ are solvable. In practice, most skilled players win every FreeCell game they play, and any loss is a strategy error rather than a bad deal.
- What makes a solitaire deal unwinnable?
- A deal is unwinnable when no sequence of legal moves can move all cards to the foundations, regardless of how the player plays. In Klondike, this usually means a card needed to unblock a tableau pile is buried beneath another card that cannot be moved until the first card is unblocked — a circular dependency. In FreeCell, unwinnability is rare because the four free cells break almost all circular dependencies.
- Does solitaire skill matter, or is it mostly luck?
- Both matter, but the weight shifts dramatically by variant. In Golf and Pyramid, luck dominates — most of the win/loss outcome is determined by the initial shuffle. In FreeCell and Baker's Dozen, skill dominates because all cards are visible and most deals are solvable. Klondike sits in the middle: many unwinnable deals are beyond any player's control, but poor strategy throws away a large proportion of winnable deals.
Find the right game for you
Browse all 13 variants and pick the win rate that suits your patience.